A new study by a Kent State University graduate is bringing attention to a uniquely Northeast Ohio hazard: lake-effect snow and its outsized role in motor vehicle accidents.
Seth A. Rainey, who earned his Master of Science in Geography in May 2024, conducted a comprehensive five-year analysis of winter weather-related crashes across seven counties in Northeast Ohio’s snowbelt.
“Lake-Effect Snow and Motor Vehicle Accidents: Assessing the Spatiotemporal Differences in Crash Risk Among Varying Winter Season Weather Conditions in Northeast Ohio,” reveals that lake-effect snow (LES) can increase the likelihood of a crash by up to 20 times compared to clear weather.
“While most people associate dangerous driving with big winter storms, lake-effect snow is often more unpredictable and just as hazardous—if not more so,” Rainey said. “It can strike suddenly, vary dramatically over short distances, and catch drivers off guard, especially early in the season before road crews and motorists are fully prepared.”
Data Points to Dangers
Using crash data from the Ohio Department of Public Safety, road sensor data from the Ohio Department of Transportation, and atmospheric reanalysis models, Rainey developed a novel classification system to isolate LES events from other types of winter precipitation.
He then calculated relative crash risks for seven weather categories, including rain, freezing rain, and various forms of snow.
Among his key findings:
- Freezing rain and lake-effect mixed precipitation posed the highest crash risks.
- Lake-effect snow was often more dangerous than broader snowstorms, particularly in November and December, before Lake Erie freezes over.
- Geauga County and local roads saw the highest LES-related crash risks, underscoring the role of elevation and road type in winter driving hazards.
Rainey’s research contributes to the field of synoptic climatology and offers practical insights for transportation planners and public safety officials. His findings could help improve winter road maintenance strategies and public awareness campaigns in regions affected by LES.
“This study is about more than just numbers,” Rainey added. “It’s about helping communities better prepare for the unique challenges of winter weather in the Great Lakes region.”
Rainey’s thesis was advised by Dr. Scott C. Sheridan, professor and chair of the Department of Geography.